{"id":34919,"date":"2026-04-02T00:03:01","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/investmentbankingrules.com\/?p=34919"},"modified":"2026-04-02T00:03:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T00:03:01","slug":"irans-ceasefire-push-may-be-a-cycle-of-deception-analysts-warn-as-shadowy-figure-gains-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/investmentbankingrules.com\/?p=34919","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s ceasefire push may be a \u2018cycle of deception,\u2019 analysts warn as shadowy figure gains power"},"content":{"rendered":"

President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that Iran may be seeking a ceasefire, but analysts say real power lies with hardline figures inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including newly prominent Commander Ahmad Vahidi.
\nTrump did not name the Iranian figure he was referring to, but his comment likely pointed to President Masoud Pezeshkian, writing: \u201cIran\u2019s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!\u201d
\nExperts caution, however, that Iran\u2019s president does not control decisions of war and peace. \u00a0
\n\u201cHe clearly does not have the authority to turn on or turn off a major military conflict with the United States,\u201d Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.
\nTRUMP\u2019S IRAN STRATEGY SHOWCASES \u2018DOCTRINE OF UNPREDICTABILITY\u2019 AMID STRIKE THREATS AND SUDDEN PAUSE<\/p>\n

Instead, analysts say real power lies with senior figures tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Vahidi, Parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and security official Mohammad Zolghadr, all of whom operate within overlapping centers of influence.
\nAttention is turning to the new terror chief seen as an extremist pulling strings, Vahidi \u2014 a longtime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander whose reemergence highlights a broader shift underway inside Iran\u2019s leadership.
\nBeni Sabti, an Iran expert at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, warned that even when Iran signals interest in a \u201cceasefire,\u201d it may not reflect a Western understanding of the term.\u00a0
\nHe pointed to the concept of \u201chudna,\u201d describing it as \u201ca ceasefire with deception \u2014 they stop when they are weak, rebuild their strength, and then attack again, whether against Israel or the United States.\u201d\u00a0
\nSabti added that such pauses can become \u201ca cycle of violence that does not end,\u201d driven by ideological motivations, and should not be interpreted as a genuine end to hostilities.<\/p>\n

From covert operations to global attacks
\nAt the center of that uncertainty is Vahidi, the new Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander.\u00a0
\n\u201cHe is a very violent man and belongs to a generation that fought in guerrilla warfare,\u201d Sabti told Fox News Digital.
\nSabti described Vahidi as part of an early cadre of Iranian operatives who built ties with militant groups in Lebanon before and after the 1979 revolution, relationships that later became central to Iran\u2019s regional strategy. Some accounts suggest Vahidi trained in camps linked to Palestinian and Lebanese factions in southern Lebanon, helping lay the groundwork for Iran\u2019s long-standing alliance with Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah.\u00a0
\nDESTROY THE REGIME\u2019S POWER WITHOUT OCCUPYING IRAN: A SMARTER WAR PLAN<\/p>\n

Vahidi rose through the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and went on to serve as commander of its elite Quds Force in the 1990s, a unit responsible for overseas operations.
\nHe has been linked to some of the deadliest attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad, including the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina and the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.
\nSabti said Vahidi was also accused of maintaining connections with al Qaeda figures following the Sept. 11 attacks, reflecting what he described as Iran\u2019s willingness to cooperate with groups targeting Western and Israeli interests.
\nDespite later holding positions that appeared political or bureaucratic, Sabti said Vahidi never truly stepped away from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran\u2019s powerful military and intelligence arm, meaning his role remained closely tied to the regime\u2019s security and operational apparatus.
\n\u201cHe always remained part of the Revolutionary Guards \u2014 even wearing uniform,\u201d he said. \u201cThat\u2019s common in Iran. Even when they move into politics, they stay within the force.\u201d
\nSabti also pointed to Vahidi\u2019s alleged role in suppressing Kurdish uprisings in northwestern Iran in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, underscoring his longstanding involvement in internal security operations.\u00a0
\nHEGSETH REVEALS COVERT VISIT TO TROOPS FIGHTING IN OPERATION EPIC FURY<\/p>\n

A system driven by power, not position
\nVahidi\u2019s renewed prominence comes as Iran\u2019s internal structure appears increasingly fragmented, with authority concentrated in overlapping and sometimes competing networks.
\n\u201cIt\u2019s not clear how coordinated either the military or political actions of the government of the Islamic Republic is today,\u201d Ben Taleblu said.
\nHe described Iran as \u201ca system of men, not a system of laws,\u201d where personal ties and informal influence often outweigh formal titles.
\nThat dynamic has intensified as the war continues.\u00a0
\n\u201cWe are seeing the IRGC ascendancy\u2026 across a host of Iranian political and security institutions,\u201d he said.
\n\u201cThis IRGC ascendancy will mean a more crass Islamic Republic, but it comes at a time when this regime is militarily less capable than ever before,\u201d he added.
\nMore power, less restraint
\nSabti said Vahidi may now be more influential than other prominent figures in Tehran, including parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei\u2019s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
\n\u201cIn my view, he is more dominant right now, even if they are coordinated. This is not a time for internal competition,\u201d Sabti said.
\nHe warned that Vahidi\u2019s rise could further harden Iran\u2019s posture.
\n\u201cHe brings even more radicalization into the system and may not want to stop the war, because it serves the interests of the Revolutionary Guards to continue,\u201d Sabti said.
\n\u201cThey could become masters of the region if the United States folds \u2014 and that is very much in his interest.\u201d
\nTrump\u2019s suggestion that Iran is seeking a ceasefire has raised hopes of a potential diplomatic opening, but experts caution that such signals may not reflect a unified position inside Iran.\u00a0
\n\u201cThe question is what was shared with President Trump genuine, or is it wheeling and dealing of just one ambitious person?\u201d Ben Taleblu said.<\/p>\n

\u201cPezeshkian clearly does not have the authority to turn on or turn off a major military conflict with the United States,\u201d Ben Taleblu said.
\nThat leaves open the possibility that any outreach could be tactical, fragmented, or even contradictory.
\nFox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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